Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | 4.56 (773 Votes) |
| Asin | : | B0131HGPQQ |
| Format Type | : | |
| Number of Pages | : | 438 Pages |
| Publish Date | : | 2013-09-23 |
| Language | : | English |
DESCRIPTION:
More about superforecasters than about superforecasting Jackal There are two kind of pop-science books; one deep and thoughtful based on years of research, one quick and dirty written by a ghost-writer. This book is of the latter kind. Tetlock wrote Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? about a decade ago. That book . This book has a 100% probability of making you think! Everyone wants to be able to predict the future, whether they are buying stocks, choosing a mate, or deciding how the next presidential election will go, but what, if anything, can we do to improve our ability to predict? Wharton School professor Philip Tetlock has been studyi. slpleslieanne said I (Matt) have really enjoyed reading Super Forcasting. I (Matt) have really enjoyed reading Super Forcasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Phillip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It's a fun book for taking a dive into forecasting .I enjoyed reading about how forecasters related to weather, politics, stocks, etc. are often cons
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters". What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.. In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Some of the volunteers have turned